The story so far: Islamist militants in Syria’s northwest launched a surprise attack last week against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad and made dramatic territorial gains. The Syrian civil war, which broke out in 2011 amidst Arab Spring-inspired anti-government protests, had entered into a frozen stage in late 2016 after the regime recaptured most of its lost territories. There was relative calm, but no real peace in the Arab Republic. With the latest clashes, peace is broken and hot war has resumed.
How has Syria’s control map changed in a week?
In 2015, before Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to send troops to Syria, the Assad regime was on the brink of collapse. He had lost most of the population centres, except Damascus and the Alawite-dominated coastal cities. There were multiple rebel and jihadist factions such as the Free Syrian Army, Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaeda’s Syria branch) and the Islamic State (IS). The IS was controlling eastern Syrian cities of Raqaa and Deir Ezzor as well as the ancient city of Palmyra. Al-Nusra and the Free Syrian Army were controlling parts of Idlib in the northwest. Other militant groups were controlling Hama, Homs, and even some neighbourhoods of Damascus. In the south, Daara and Quneitra were restive.
The Russian intervention played a pivotal role in turning around the civil war. While Kurdish militias, backed by the U.S., fought the IS in the east and in the Kurdish border towns, the Syrian army, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, fought other rebel groups, recapturing lost territories. For example, by December 2016, more than a year after the Russian arrival, the regime retook Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city and its commercial capital. The militants continued to hold on to Idlib when the war got frozen.
Last week, the rebels launched their offensive from Idlib. Their initial objective, according to several war monitors, was to capture the western neighbourhoods of Aleppo. But the ease with which they pushed the regime forces out of Aleppo’s suburbs prompted them to expand the scope of the offensive and march towards the city. Within days, they captured Aleppo. They have now moved south towards Hama, a regime stronghold, and have cut through regime forces’ defensive lines. In the northeast of Aleppo, militants have captured territories from Kurdish rebels. In less than a week, the Idlib militants have more than doubled the territories they hold.
Who are the main actors?
There are three main actors in Syria today. The most important actor is the regime, which is backed by Iran, Shia militias from Iraq and Russia. The second player is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is basically an umbrella militia group involving People’s Protection Forces (YPG), the main Syrian Kurdish militia that controls the Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava). From the early stages of the civil war, the regime and the YPG had entered into a detente. The Kurds, who got their relative autonomy, and regime forces stayed away from targeting each other. The third actor is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main anti-government force that is in control of Idlib. The Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army is today called the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is practically a sidekick of the jihadist HTS. The ongoing offensive is led by the HTS, along with the SNA.
What is HTS?
The HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, a 42-year-old Syrian militant. Joulani had moved to Iraq in his early 20s to fight the American occupation of the country (2003) and joined al-Qaeda. When al-Qaeda in Iraq was commanded by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Joulani emerged as one of his close lieutenants. When Baghdadi decided to send a contingent of al-Qaeda jihadists across the border to Syria to fight President Assad after the civil war broke out, he chose Joulani to lead the pack. He set up Jabhat al-Nusra. Later, Joulani fell out with Baghdadi as the former wanted al-Nusra to join the Islamic State. Joulani wanted to retain his group as an autonomous al-Qaeda branch in Syria.
When the world’s focus shifted towards the Islamic State, Joulani steadily built his empire in Idlib. The Islamic State was defeated and Baghdadi was killed, but Joulani emerged as the face of anti-regime Syrian militancy. He first changed the name of al-Nusra to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. Later, the name was changed again to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as he sought to distance his group from al-Qaeda–though the HTS never renounced its Islamist ideology. Rebels and jihadists who lost territories elsewhere flocked towards Idlib as it offered refuge to all of them. Over the years, Joulani’s men built a parallel state in Idlib. Joulani is a U.S.-designated terrorist, but, after establishing his rule over Idlib, he declared that his fight was against Mr. Assad, not against the U.S. He has not faced any major attacks from the U.S., which still has hundreds of soldiers in eastern Syria.
Why did the militants launch an attack now?
Joulani had always said that bringing down the Assad regime was one of his objectives. The Syrian regime wanted to attack Idlib and recapture the governorate. But it could not have carried out such an attack against an enclave of 3 million people without Russia’s active support. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staunchly opposed any offensive at Idlib, saying it would trigger another refugee influx into Turkey. This was also the time Russia’s Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan entered into an entente. Russia forced Syria to accept a ceasefire, leaving Idlib in the hands of the HTS and the SNA (the Turkish proxy). So there was tense calm in Syria.
The geopolitical dynamics have shifted ever since. Russia launched a war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Moscow is today preoccupied with the ongoing war, and has also withdrawn thousands of soldiers from Syria. During the height of the civil war, Qassem Soleimani, the charismatic Iranian Quds Force General, was in charge of building and deploying Shia militias in Syria that fought the anti-regime militants. Gen. Soleimani was assassinated by the Americans in January 2020. Over the past year, several senior Iranian Generals were killed in Syria by Israeli air strikes. Hezbollah, which fought on the frontlines against the rebels during the early phase of the civil war, is today busy reorganising itself after months of direct fighting with Israel. Israel’s repeated air strikes in Syria over the past several years have substantially weakened Iranian, regime and Hezbollah positions in the country. These geopolitical developments provided an opportunity for the militants to launch their offensive. Without direct support from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, Syria’s troops were vulnerable. The militants, reportedly backed by Turkey, made use of that vulnerability and made swift advances to capture the whole of Aleppo.
Is the regime in danger?
It took four years for Mr. Assad to recapture Aleppo in 2016. It took just four days for him to lose it to the HTS. This is an embarrassing setback for the regime. The militants’ attacks on Hama should set alarm bells ringing in Damascus. Because if Hama falls, the militants will target Homs. The collapse of the regime forces in the north has reinvigorated other smaller rebel groups elsewhere in the country who started attacking government positions, especially in the south. Suddenly, the regime faces a full-blown civil war. But it’s too early to rule out Mr. Assad, who survived years-long civil war once. His regime has deep routes in the coastal regions and among the country’s minorities. After the initial setback, regime forces are now coordinating with Iran for reinforcements. Thousands of fighters from Iraqi militias such as Kataib Hezbollah and Badr Organisation have already joined the battle. The regime’s immediate focus would be on bolstering its defensive positions and arresting the rebel advances. The militants on the other side sense a great opportunity in expanding their territorial control. Syria appears to be getting ready for another prolonged spell of bloodshed.
Published – December 04, 2024 05:07 pm IST
