Uncertain Australia walking a tightrope in Adelaide

A couple of weeks ago Australia were talking of cementing a legacy. They can still do that, but it’s become a lot harder after being demolished in Perth. For now, those lofty ambitions may come down to what happens over the next nine days in Adelaide.

Australia were 1-0 down in the 2018-19 series against India but the defeat was narrower (31 runs in Adelaide) and expectations were lower with the side missing David Warner and Steven Smith. They levelled it in Perth and it wasn’t until the fourth match in Melbourne with the series level at 1-1 that India pulled away with Jasprit Bumrah taking 6 for 33. Few reminders are needed that it was India who came from 1-0 down in 2020-21.

It remains too early to suggest Australia can’t fight back – both India and Pakistan have come from 1-0 down to win series this year – but mentions of previous rare home calamities are beginning. One is the 2016-17 series against South Africa, when defeat in the second Test in Hobart led to mass changes in the team. Before that, in the 2010-11 Ashes they were trailing 0-1 after the second Test in Adelaide, briefly rose off the canvas in Perth, then came crashing down in Melbourne and Sydney. Reviews, sackings and recriminations followed.

The team that crumbled in Hobart did not have the standing of this current squad, while in 2010-11 there were concerns around the bowling. It is also worth remembering Australia have suffered consecutive home defeats after West Indies’ Shamar Joseph-inspired victory at the Gabba earlier in the year. The last time Australia lost three home Tests in a row was 1988.

All this is to say, Australia have not faced a home Test of such significance in a long time. Win it and the bad week in Perth will look a little less severe (and sets up a potentially classic series) but lose, be 2-0 down with three to play, and the prospect of a third-consecutive home loss to India would loom large. That could have significant ramifications.

They will have to do it against an India side strengthened by the return of captain Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill. Washington Sundar did his job in Perth, but it’s difficult to believe that R Ashwin or Ravindra Jadeja wouldn’t add further potency to the attack. Australia have never lost a pink-ball Test in Adelaide, but they were also unbeaten at Optus Stadium until this series. The number 36 will likely be mentioned a lot in the coming days, but it’s unlikely to have left many scars for the visitors, especially as they came back to win that series.

Amid the concerns Australia had after Perth, they have increased with the loss of Josh Hazlewood for at least Adelaide due to a side strain and doubts over Mitchell Marsh’s fitness – who it has been conceded was underdone heading into the first Test. After such a carefully curated build-up to lose two players after one Test would raise some questions. The depth of both squads could be tested over the next phase of the series with only three days between the upcoming two games.

In Adelaide, the city of churches, there may be a few prayers being said that it’s not Bumrah who has the ball in his hands as night falls

There is no secret that this is a mature Australia side. Nathan McSweeney is the only player under 30 – effectively replacing Cameron Green as the one in that age bracket – although the selectors have insisted that isn’t a factor in selection. Beau Webster has fully earned his call-up but has just turned 31 while Scott Boland, likely to be Hazlewood’s replacement, is 35. It doesn’t have to be an issue when things are trucking along nicely but it can quickly become a focal point when problems start to emerge. For those closer to the end of a career than the start, time can catch up rapidly and rather unexpectedly.

Another performance like the one at Perth would sharpen the focus. Smith has now gone longer than ever without a Test century, reaching 23 innings compared to the 22 it took from his debut to maiden hundred. He did look promising for his 17 in the second innings at Perth (the ball to remove him by Mohammed Siraj was a beauty) but the fact that was worthy of comment highlights the problem. Marnus Labuschagne has come under most scrutiny but of the incumbent batters, Alex Carey is now the only one to be averaging over 30 in Test cricket this year.

Writing in his ESPNcricinfo column, Ian Chappell said: “If Australia do lose the second Test, the batting will come under the microscope. That’s when the paucity of potential batting talent in Australia will cause some selection headaches.”

As you would expect him to do, Cricket Australia’s head of high performance, Ben Oliver, defended the depth in the domestic game last week. To bring some encouragement about emerging players, Sam Konstas‘ free-flowing century in Canberra was timely even if the circumstances were a little odd. It follows the impressive 73 not out he made in the second innings against India A at the MCG.

While Australia’s hopes went south in Perth, analysis turned many commentators into body-language experts while a Hazlewood press conference when the match was effectively over has been picked apart for what it could mean about rifts in the dressing room. Whether there’s any truth or not, those types of things will only grow louder if there is not a swift response on the field.

This week will also throw in the added jeopardy of the day-night element. Timing can be everything in these matches: face a new ball under lights and things can move quickly. That applies to both teams, but Australia don’t have much room left for poor sessions, let alone days. In Adelaide, the city of churches, there may be a few prayers being said that it’s not Bumrah who has the ball in his hands as night falls.