(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)
The year 2024 was a tumultuous one for the world. The war in Ukraine continued with Russian territorial advances. China continued to flex its muscles in East Asia even as its economy was struggling. In West Asia, Israel has been behaving like a rogue state carrying out large-scale attacks in its neighbourhood and killing tens of thousands of people, mostly civilians. Regimes fell in Bangladesh and Syria. In Georgia, a disputed election triggered a political crisis, which is reminiscent of the 2014 Ukraine political crisis. The U.S. has been there in the forefront of the pro-Ukraine supply group. But in West Asia, the U.S. continues to support Israel despite concerns that Israel is carrying out genocide in Gaza against Palestinians. And then Donald Trump won the presidential election. The year 2025 is unlikely to be different. With Mr. Trump at the helm in the U.S. and the existing conflicts set to continue, the world is expected to see further disruption. Three geopolitical developments need to be closely watched, which could shape international politics in the coming months.
Ukraine war
Russia made major territorial gains in 2024 in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops are now closing in on the eastern city of Pokrovsk, major logistical hub for the Ukrainian troops. But Ukraine, which is struggling on the battlefield, has taken the war to the Russian mainland with western-supplied weapons. In November, after Mr. Trump, who had promised to bring the Ukraine war to an end, won the presidential election, outgoing President Joe Biden gave permission to Ukraine to fire U.S.-supplied long-range missiles at Russia. Ukraine is also carrying out drone attacks regularly in Russia. But what worries Ukraine is the return of Mr. Trump to the White House. If financial and military assistance from the U.S. dries up, Ukraine would be in deep trouble. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President who had earlier ruled out any compromise on territories in return for peace, is now open to freezing the conflict along the line of contact if Kyiv is allowed to join NATO. European countries are also considering sending peacekeeping forces or trainers to Ukraine as part of a peace deal. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has said that he is ready to discuss Ukraine with Mr. Trump but he has demanded Ukraine’s ‘neutrality’ as part of any deal and opposed foreign troops’ presence in Ukraine. The future direction of the war would mainly depend on two factors–Russia’s ability to continue to make gains on the battlefield and the position Mr. Trump takes once he assumes power.
Crisis in West Asia
The story of West Asia was bloodier than that of Ukraine. Israel, which started attacking Gaza in October 2023 after Hamas’s cross border raid, continued its bombardment of the Palestinian enclave in 2024 with no restraint. More than 44,000 Palestinians have so far been killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza. In the second half of the year, Israel escalated the conflict by invading Lebanon. It killed the top leadership of Hezbollah, which started firing rockets into Israel in October 2023. Israel also attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus, which triggered a direct Iranian strike on Israel. Later, Israel and Hezbollah accepted a ceasefire, but the twists and churns in the region did not end there.
In later November, Syria’s Islamist militants, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly al-Qaeda) launched an offensive against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. In 12 days, the HTS, commanded by former al-Qaeda leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and backed by Turkey , captured Damascus, forcing Mr. Assad to flee. Israel wasted no time in grabbing more Syrian land in the Golan Heights. It also launched massive attacks in Syria aimed at demilitarising the country so that the new Islamist regime could not pose any conventional military threat to the Jewish state. The fall of the Assad regime was a setback for both Iran and Russia. For Iran, Mr. Assad’s Syria was a critical conduit for supplies for Hezbollah. For Russia, Syria hosted an air base and a naval base. In 2025, what is to be seen is where the conflict in Gaza is headed to and how Iran is going to respond to the setbacks it suffered. Israel, despite the international isolation it faces, would be hoping that the return of Mr. Trump to the White House would strengthen its hands in the region. It is also likely to bring parts of Gaza under its direct military occupation.
U.S.-China rivalry
While Ukraine and West Asia are the hot conflicts of the time, the cold war that’s being played out is between the U.S. and China, the world’s most powerful countries. China, the rising superpower, wants to continue to spread its influence, while the U.S., the reigning power, wants to check China’s influence. Mr. Trump has already threatened to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods, which would flare up global trade tensions. Both countries are already competing in the field of technology. Two geopolitical areas to be watched are Taiwan and the South China Sea. China has upped the game around Taiwan in recent years with back-to-back live drills, and has repeatedly warned against altering the status quo. In the South China Sea, tensions between China and the Philippines, an American ally, have risen dramatically in recent months over contested reefs. China faces economic challenges at home. But President Xi Jinping is unlikely to let those challenges affect the country’s grand foreign policy ambitions. With the U.S. under Trump expected to take a more hawkish line towards Beijing, the cold war of the 21 century is likely to heat up further.
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Published – December 31, 2024 11:54 am IST
