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On Saturday, it appeared that Israel and Hamas were close to clinching a temporary ceasefire and hostage release deal. Palestinian, Egyptian and Saudi media reported progress in negotiations that took place in Cairo. “A working formula on all contentious issues” has been reached between the mediators, an Egyptian official was quoted as saying in a report. Biden administration officials said “a very generous” deal was offered to Hamas and the rest was up to the Palestinian militant group. But two days later, the truce talks seemed to have entered into a deadlock. On Monday, the Israeli Defence Forces ordered hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to evacuate from Rafah, the southernmost town in Gaza where more than 1.4 million Palestinians, mostly refugees, have taken shelter. The IDF order suggests that Israel is going ahead with a plan to invade Rafah, defying international warnings and concerns.
The proposed peace plan had three phases. In the first phase, Israel would cease fire for 40 days and withdraw from parts of Gaza in return for the release of 33 hostages. Palestinian prisoners would also be released. In the second phase, the ceasefire would be extended by 42 more days, while all the remaining living hostages would be freed by Hamas. There was a broad agreement on these two phases between Israeli and Hamas negotiators, according to Arab media. But talks go stuck about the implementation of phase three, which requires Hamas to release the physical remains of all hostages. Hamas wants guarantees from Israel that the ceasefire would be extended permanently and the IDF would be withdrawn from the whole of Gaza. Some reports indicated that U.S. mediators guaranteed a permanent ceasefire to Hamas, but Israeli officials were quick to dismiss such reports. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that Israel would attack Rafah, where at least four more battalions of Hamas stay, with or without a ceasefire. Israeli officials said even if a hostage deal is reached, the war would not come to an end and that no third party could give guarantees about a ceasefire.
Israel is clearly under pressure. Almost seven months after the war began, it still hasn’t got most of the hostages back. The heavy civilian casualty of Israel’s attack on Gaza has turned the international pressure up on the Jewish state. More than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed by the IDF in Gaza ever since its war began on October 7, after Hamas’s cross border attack that killed 1,200 people in Israel. There is a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, the UN’s top court, which could issue arrest warrants against Israeli leaders. Israel is also fighting a war of attrition on its northern border with Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese Shia militia which has turned the Upper Galilee region into a no-man’s land. So Israel wants hostages back and it has signalled its willingness to cut a deal with Hamas. But at the same time, Mr. Netanyahu doesn’t want to bring his military campaign in Gaza to an end without meeting his declared objective—the dismantling of Hamas. Israel says it will meet its objective only if it invades Rafah. But an invasion of Rafah would also mean that hostages would not be released any time soon. Hamas is ready to exchange hostages for Palestinian prisoners, but it needs a “comprehensive deal” involving a permanent ceasefire and the IDF’s total withdrawal from Gaza. These conflicting narratives and positions make a ceasefire deal elusive.
In the meantime, the Palestinian’s miseries are mounting. They can’t go to central or northern Gaza which has been pulverised by the IDF and is still considered as battle zones. They have now been ordered to move from one part of the overcrowded Rafah to another part, on the Mediterranean coast. If Israel launches the Rafah invasion, it would lead to a “bloodbath”, as the WHO had warned. It would also increase the possibility of a regional war, with Hezbollah upping the ante on the northern border. The Biden administration, which calls for restraint without actually using any meaningful pressure tactics, looks indecisive and helpless as Mr. Netanyahu is inching closer towards attacking Rafah.
The Top Five stories we are reading this week
- The paradox of India’s global rise, its regional decline, Happymon Jacob writes.
- New York police storm Columbia University to remove student protesters; over 100 held, Anisha Dutta reports from ground zero.
- A three-dimensional view of the Israel-Iran crisis, Stanly Johny writes.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | The third runner, profile by Saumya Kalia.
- Policy mismatch: On the U.S. and Israel policy, editorial by The Hindu.
