2024 saw some significant elections, with key changes in the United Kingdom, the United States and India, among many others. As 2025 gets underway, the scene is set for even more elections, with potential repercussions across the globe. In Germany, the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition will mean a new election amid a general European tilt to the right. Justin Trudeau stepping down as prime minister of Canada will offer a new challenge to the country’s electorate, even as Donald Trump takes over in the neighbouring U.S, threatening tariffs and referring to Canada as the 51st State of his country.
Closer home, the Delhi Assembly elections will determine the fate of the Aam Aadmi Party after a particularly turbulent couple of years.
We take a look and some more significant elections which may shape the world in the year to come.
Elections in India
Delhi
Elections will be held across Delhi’s 70 constituencies on February 5, 2025, with counting to be held on February 8. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party will hope to retain power for the third time on its own, announcing that it would not ally with the Congress for these elections.
Arvind Kejriwal, the national convenor of AAP has made several poll promises, including free treatment for all senior citizens in all Delhi hospitals under the ‘Sanjeevani Yojana.’ The Aam Aadmi Party has also launched the Mukhyamantri Mahila Samman Yojana, under which eligible women above 18 years will receive ₹1,000 per month.
Meanwhile, the BJP is likely to rely on Bihar-based allies Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), given the strong presence of migrants from Bihar, including poorvanchalis, and Uttar Pradesh.
The AAP had a strong showing in 2020, winning 63 of 70 seats. In 2015, it had won 67 seats.
Bihar
Elections to the 243-member Bihar Assembly are due in late 2025, potentially in October/November. The JD(U) under the leadership of Nitish Kumar will seek to maintain its grip on the State during the Assembly elections.
Mr. Kumar has even launched a Pragati Yatra from Champaran on December 23, with the slogan Jab Baat Bihar Ki ho, Naam Sirf Nitish Kumar Ka Ho” (When it is about Bihar, Nitish Kumar should be the only name). Senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and the State’s Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary has also confirmed that the NDA will fight under Mr. Kumar’s leadership.
Also read: Will Nitish Kumar remain the face of the NDA in the Bihar Assembly election?
Rajya Sabha
Polls will be held for the Rajya Sabha as members from certain States finish their terms. In Assam, two of seven seats will go to the polls after the tenures of BJP MP Mission Ranjan Das and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) MP Birendra Prasad Baishya will end on June 14, 2025.
Meanwhile, six of 18 seats in Tamil Nadu will also go the polls as M.M. Abdulla, M Shanmugam, P Wilson, N Chandrasegharan, Vaiko and Anbumani Ramadoss finish their terms this year.
International elections
Canada
Justin Trudeau stepped down as Canada’s prime minister on January 6, 2025, after almost nine years in power, amid growing unpopularity in Canada. His minority Liberal Party government, which holds only 154 of 338 seats in the House of Commons, was further weakened after the New Democratic Party ended a 2022 deal to back the party on key votes.
The Canadian Parliament, which was to resume on January 27, will now resume in March, allowing the Liberal Party to pick a new leader. It has said that it will pick a new prime minister by March 9.
The three main opposition parties have said they will launch a no-confidence motion in Parliament once it resumes, which may lead to a spring election. The Liberal Party has seen a dip in its popularity over the last few years, even as the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have made a strong showing. Also in the field are the left-of-center Bloc Quebecois, the third-largest party in the House, which seeks to withdraw Quebec from the Canadian confederation.
According to a recent poll, the Liberal Party trails the opposition Conservatives 45% to 23%
Germany
Germany is gearing up for a general election to its Bundestag (the lower house of its parliament) on February 23, following the collapse of its “traffic-light” coalition of social democrats, liberals and greens late last year. The collapse was triggered by Chancellor Olaf Scholz firing Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic party (FDP), a liberal pro-business party that was part of the coalition.
Other parties in the fray are the Social Democrats (SPD), a centre-left party that is the nation’s oldest political party, led by Olaf Scholz; the Centre-right Christian Democrats, which include CDU and its Bavarian sister-party CSU, to which Angela Merkel belonged and which is now led by corporate lawyer Friedrich Merz; Die Grünen or the Greens led by Robert Habeck, who is presently serving as economy minister, while Annalena Baerbock, another party member, serves as foreign minister; the far-right AfD – Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which opposes immigration and the Eurozone, and is co-chaired by Alice Weidel; Die Linke – the Left – a leftwing populist party helmed by Jan Van Aken and Heidi Reichinnek; and the BSW – Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, founded by a former Linke politician.
A majority of any one party is unlikely in Bundestag, making a coalition government imminent.
Poland
Poland shall hold presidential elections in May to decide the successor to current president Andrzej Duda, who hails from the Law and Justice party (PiS). The chief candidates in the running are Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw, who belongs to the Civic Platform party (PO), and Karol Nawrocki, a historian, who is the candidate for PiS. Opinion polls have predicted a potential victory for the Civil Platform candidate.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk (Civic Platform) has led the country since December 2023. Although the prime minister is in charge of regular governance, the President still plays a crucial role, having the power to veto government policies.
Romania
Romania will hold new presidential elections in 2025 after the Constitutional Court annulled the first round of voting due to concerns over foreign interference, including Russian influence on TikTok. Centrist, pro-EU candidate Elena Lasconi and far-right, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu had advanced to the second round in this election. Official proceedings have been launched by the European Commission against TikTok under the Digital Services Act.
Klaus Iohannis, the former president, will stay in power till a successor is selected. The legislative elections, which were not annulled, saw a victory for the Social Democrats.
Belarus
In what is being considered a pro-forma election, lawmakers in Belarus have announced that the country’s next presidential election will be held on January 26. This is expected to return authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko to power, extending his three decades in power.
This would be the seventh consecutive term for Mr. Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994 and is referred to as “Europe’s last dictator,” suppressing dissent and criticism. The last election, held in 2020, was deemed fraudulent by the West and the Opposition. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran against Lukashenko, was subsequently forced to flee to neighbouring Lithuania. She now runs a government in exile, recognised by the European Parliament, and has called the upcoming elections a farce.
Croatia
Croatia’s incumbent President Zoran Milanović was re-elected following a run-off on January 12 against Dragan Primorac from the ruling conservative party. Mr. Milanovic had won the first round of the presidential elections on December 29, 2024, but missed the required half-way mark by 5,000 votes.
Italy
An important electoral test awaits Giorgia Meloni in September 2025, when elections will be held in six important regions: Puglia, Campania, Le Marche, Tuscany, Valle d’Aosta, and Veneto. In Puglia, MEP Antonio Decaro, chair of the Environment committee and of the Democratic Party could run as governor.
In November 2023, coalition parties were outflanked by the centre-left coalition in the regional elections in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria — a setback for Ms. Meloni.
Kosovo
Kosovar President Vjosa Osmani has set February 9, 2025, as the date for regular parliamentary elections in the Balkan country. The election campaign is expected to begin now, as winter holidays ended on January 7. The election is likely to held with EU obsevers.
Gabon
Gabon’s military leaders say they plan to hold a general election in August 2025.This follows pressure from the international community to announce a timetable for a return to civilian rule.
General Brice Oligui Nguema seized power from his cousin, President Ali Bongo Ondimba, in August 2023, promising to save the country from a “severe institutional” crisis. Gabon has been under the contol of the Bongo family for 55 years. Gen. Oligui Nguema assured citizens that he would hand power back to civilians after a two-year transition, but now also seeks to win the election scheduled for August.
Tanzania
Tanzania will hold general elections in October. Incumbent president Samia Suluhu Hassan, who took over after the death of John Magufuli in 2021. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party faces stiff Opposition from the Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) and ACT-Wazalendo, with increased political freedom post reforms by President Samia.
Bolivia
Bolivia will hold general elections on August 17 to elect the President, Vice President, members of the Chamber of Deputies, and members of the Chamber of Senators.
Matters have been complicated for the ruling party Movement for Socialism (MAS) after ex-President Evo Morales left in November 2019 after a failed attempt to be re-elected for a fourth term in an election which was alleged to be fradulent. Mr. Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president, came to power in 2006 and ruled for nearly 14 years. The country is now led by Luis Arce, former economy minister under Mr. Morales. Supporters of Mr. Arce and Mr. Morales, the founder of MAS, have sparred internally within the party. While Mr. Arce is seeking re-election, Bolivia’s Constitutional Tribunal in November 2024 barred Mr. Morales from running again for elected office.
Meanwhile, the Opposition too has not put up a strong front. Some leaders, such as Santa Cruz activist Romulo Calvo, governor Luis Fernando Camacho and Añez, are in jail for their alleged involvement in a coup, among other charges. Former interim President Carlos Mesa has not been able to make electoral gains either.
Honduras
General elections are due to be held in Honduras by November 2025 to elect the President, members of the National Congress and 20 members of the Central American Parliament. Incumbent president Xiomara Castro will seek to retain power. Ms. Castro recently unilaterally ended a 112-year-old U.S.-Honduran extradition treaty, accusing the U.S. of pressuring the Honduran armed forces into removing her from office.
Argentina
Argentina is set to hold a midterm election this year, as the country faces one of its worst economic declines in recent years. Argentine President Javier Milei recently launched his own political party, and winning the 2025 elections would give Mr. Milei’s libertarian La Libertad Avanza (Liberty Advances) party power in Congress. The party currently is a minority in both chambers of Congress, hindering its legislative and policy efforts.
Ecuador
Ecuador will hold general elections on Febuary 9, 2025, to elect its president, 151 assembly members, and five Andean parliamentarians. This follows after former president Guillermo Lasso dissolved the Assembly in May 2023 by executive decree during a socio-economic and security crisis. The frontrunner in the race is incumbent president Daniel Noboa, followed by the Citizen Revolution’s Luisa González, Jean Topic, running for the second time, and indigenous leader Leonidas Iza.
Chile
Chile’s presidential election is due to take place on November 16, 2025, with a potential run-off between the top two candidates highly likely to take place on December 14. This is owing to Chile’s ballotage system, according to which a candidate requires 50% plus one vote to win.
The ruling coalition is yet to select its presidential candidate, with ex-president Michelle Bachelet, Mayor of Maipú Tomás Vodanovic, and Home Affairs Minister Carolina Toha being among those whose names have been suggested. The incumbent president, Gabriel Boric, who helms the left-wing Broad Front coalition, is barred from running for a second consecutive term. Polls point to a potential win for the Opposition party, the right-wing coalition Chile Vamos, led by the former mayor of Providencia, Evelyn Matthei.
The Philippines
The Philippines will hold an important midterm election in May 2025. The election for local officials, district representatives to the lower house and 12 senators is often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. After the end of Ferdinand Marcos’ dictatorship in 1986, Filipino presidents can only hold one six-year term.
This election is also important for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. amid a spat with Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte. The two ran as allies in the 2022 elections, where the post for vice-president saw a separate election. Equations worsened after it became clear that Mr. Marcos Jr. did not regard Ms. Duterte as his successor. Ms. Duterte is likely to face an impeachment trial for the mismanagement of funds, which would result in her removal from office, and bar her from a presidential bid in 2028.
Polls have indicated that candidates for senate backed by Mr. Marcos Jr. may win nine or 10 (of the total 12.)
Any advantage for Ms. Duterte is likely to make things uncomfortable for the Marcos family, which has been corrupt and embroiled in political scandal numerous times.
Australia
Australia will hold a federal election in 2025. The nation sees a unique system whereby the Prime Minister (currently Anthony Albanese) decides the timing of the election. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said that he will serve a full three-year term.
The constitution requires elections to be held no later than 68 days after the House of Representatives terms expire — which is on July 25 this year. However, since half of the Senate’s terms end on June 30, an election must take place before then. Considering procedural factors and the tradition of holding house and half-Senate elections together, the latest possible date for the next federal election is May 17.
Meanwhile, western Australia will hold State elections on March 8.
Published – January 14, 2025 01:42 pm IST
