India start as favourites, but Bengaluru weather could level the playing field

Big picture – India look to continue WTC march

When they started their home season, India needed seven wins out of their ten remaining Tests to put beyond reasonable doubt their qualification for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. In certain scenarios, even five wins would be enough. With five of these Tests in Australia, India wanted to go there with the five minimum wins already in the bag.

Rain and poor facilities in Kanpur threatened to deny them one of those wins, but an extraordinarily enterprising batting approach manufactured a win there. They face a similar scenario when they start the three-Test series against New Zealand in Bengaluru, where rain disrupted the teams’ preparation, and is threatening to significantly impact the Test.

Former world Test champions New Zealand will want to prove silly the assumption that rain threatens to cost India certain points as was the case with Bangladesh in Kanpur, but the fact is that not much separates New Zealand and Bangladesh on the WTC points table. They have won only 37.5% of the points they have contested, about half of what India have. What’s worse is that they are away from home comforts and are coming off a 2-0 defeat in Sri Lanka, which is just a teaser of the challenges they can expect to face in India, who are on a six-match winning streak. New Zealand will have to start this challenge without the services of Kane Williamson, who is racing against time to be fit for the second Test.

Then again, the rain does offer New Zealand a window of opportunity. In case it lets up and leaves the pitch sweating, there could be value in inserting the opposition an unprecedented three times in a row in India. If they manage to cash in on that window, they have a chance in the Test, but equally, India will back themselves in any conditions because they still might have a better pace attack even with Mohammed Shami missing. In fact, they might even relish seaming conditions because they also have one eye on the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia.

Form guide

India WWWWW (completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand LLLLW

In the spotlight – Virat Kohli and Tim Southee

It can be difficult to judge where Virat Kohli‘s game is at because everything around him is always heightened – be it optimism or pessimism. India haven’t played a lot of Test cricket in the recent past, but Kohli does have two centuries in his last eight Tests. However, before that, he had endured a long dry patch. Now people are keen to know how he is faring given the big series in Australia at the end of the year. At his IPL home ground, at a venue where he led India to a rousing Test win against Australia in 2017, Kohli is bound to be the centre of attention.

Kohli’s rival from his Under-19 days, Tim Southee was New Zealand’s captain only about a fortnight ago. He stepped down with a record of 6-6-2, but on the back of the whitewash in Sri Lanka. Eighteen short of 400 wickets, Southee continues to remain a vital part of New Zealand’s attack, especially in India, where he can use his experience to remain effective even when the conditions aren’t helpful. He took five-wicket hauls on two of his three previous trips here – one of them in overcast Bengaluru in 2012, and another in dry Kanpur in 2021, which shows his versatility, something New Zealand will need desperately in order to remain competitive.

Pitch and conditions

Early intelligence suggests India might return to tracks that call for three spinners after the Bangladesh series, where they played three quicks in both Tests and the side winning the toss chose to field on either occasion. However, the inclement weather in the lead-up to the Test against New Zealand in Bengaluru could end up producing seam-friendly conditions. The weather is likely to play spoilsport through the game, with the first two days likely to be the worst affected. However, the drainage facilities in Bengaluru are as good as anywhere.

Team news – Three quicks or three spinners?

Shubman Gill has a stiff neck, which could unsettle a settled batting line-up. If he doesn’t wake up fit to play, Gill could be replaced by Sarfaraz Khan in the XI and KL Rahul at No. 3. The question for them is whether to field an extra spinner or a third quick. It is likely to eventually come down to how much rain there is in the lead-up to the toss and how the conditions are at the time.

India (likely): 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 3 Shubman Gill/Sarfaraz Khan, 4 Virat Kohli, 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 KL Rahul, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 R Ashwin, 9 Akash Deep/Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Jasprit Bumrah, 11 Mohammed Siraj

Mark Chapman is Williamson’s cover in New Zealand’s squad, but the slot has gone to Will Young. Mitchell Santner will be under pressure to keep his place after averaging 197 and being outbowled by Glenn Phillips in Sri Lanka.

New Zealand (possible): 1 Devon Conway, 2 Tom Latham (capt), 3 Will Young, 4 Rachin Ravindra, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Glenn Phillips, 8 Mitchell Santner/Michael Bracewell, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Ajaz Patel, 11 Will O’Rourke

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