India WTC final qualification: Rohit Sharma’s team will drop PCT if they lose or draw Gabba Test against Australia. (AP)
India’s chances to qualify for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final will take yet another turn if third Border-Gavaskar Test against Australia will end in a draw or defeat in Brisbane on Wednesday.
While a win looks out of the equation at the rainy Gabba on Day 5, India’s WTC points percentage (PCT) is expected to take a hit, irrespective of a draw or loss. India’s PCT will slip from 57.29 to 55.88 in case of a draw and plunge further down to 53.92 in case of a loss. India will remain in the third spot on the WTC standings, behind South Africa and Australia, if they do not fail to secure a win in the ongoing match.
The Adelaide Test win marked Australia’s ninth victory of the ongoing cycle, shoring up their PCT from 57.69 to 60.71, only bettered by South Africa (63.33) who have two home Tests remaining. A draw or loss in Brisbane, therefore, will stiffen the challenge for both Australia and India, but more so for Rohit Sharma’s men.
How many defeats can India afford from here?
To qualify for the WTC 2025 final, India cannot afford another defeat in their remaining two matches. Moreover, India can only afford a maximum of one draw in the remaining games. If the Gabba Test ends in a draw, Rohit and Co. can accumulate 138 points at a 60.52 PCT with two outright wins in Melbourne and Sydney, which cannot be overhauled by Australia. That would require India to pull off a stunning 3-1 coup Down Under against the defending WTC champions.
India’s WTC final scenarios
- If India beat Australia 3-2, they will finish with 134 points and a PCT of 58.77. With only two Tests left in Sri Lanka, Australia can then finish at best with 126 points and a 55.26 PCT. Simultaneously, South Africa could extend their PCT up to 69.44 with two wins in their remaining home games against Pakistan.
- If India beat Australia 3-1, they will finish with 138 points and a PCT of 60.52. Australia will only be able to finish with a 57 PCT then, should they win the remaining games in Sri Lanka, effectively knocking them out of the race.
- If India draw Australia 2-2, they will finish with 126 points and a PCT of 57.01. Australia, in such a scenario, can move ahead to 130 points by the end of the series and knock India out of the WTC final race.
WTC Points Table ahead of IND vs AUS 3rd Test Day 5
|
Pos. |
Team |
Matches |
Points Played |
Points |
PCT |
|||
| P | W | L | D | |||||
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 120 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 168 | 102 | 60.71 |
| 3 | India | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 192 | 110 | 57.29 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 168 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 132 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 264 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 120 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh (E) | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 144 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies (E) | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 132 | 32 | 24.24 |
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