China’s November imports post surprise drop; sharpest decline in 14 months

A foreign trade container ship is leaving the dock at Qingdao Port in Qingdao, China, on June 7, 2024. 

Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in November, data from the country’s customs authority showed Tuesday, fueling worries over the health of the Chinese economy as consumer demand remains sluggish and tariff threats loom.

Import data surprised with a decline of 3.9%, marking the sharpest fall since September 2023. Analysts had expected imports to grow 0.3%.

Exports rose 6.7% in U.S. dollar terms from a year ago, sharply lower than the 12.7% growth in the previous month. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected exports to climb 8.5% from a year ago in November.

The exports slowdown in November does not “mark an end of China’s recent export boom,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics said in a note on Tuesday, adding that while U.S. tariffs could reduce export volumes by around 3%, “they may not be felt until the middle of next year.”

In the short run, the tariff threats “may even spur exports as U.S. firms ramp up orders” for Chinese goods, Huang added.

Meanwhile, import volumes may also recover in the short term, as accelerated fiscal spending boosts demand for industrial commodities, Huang said.

China’s exports to all its major trading partners — the U.S., European Union and Association of Southeast Asian Nations — all rose in November from a year earlier.

Exports to ASEAN countries increased the most, up by nearly 15%, according to CNBC’s analysis of the official data. Imports from its largest trading partner ASEAN fell 3%.

China’s exports to the U.S. increased 8% on year while imports fell over 11%. The country’s exports to European Union jumped 7.2% while imports shrank 6.5% from a year ago.

China’s exports to Russia were down by 2.5% while imports dropped by 6.5%.

The volume of China’s rare earths exports rose nearly 5% from a year ago in November, shipping out 4,416 metric tons of the minerals, used in products ranging from electric vehicles to consumer electronics. Cumulative exports in the months through November this year rose 6.6% from a year ago.

The country’s rare earths imports declined over 20% from the year before to 11,327 tons.

The country announced a new policy in July to step up its oversight of the domestic rare earths industry over national security concerns.

China’s steel exports last month surged by 16% from a year ago to 9.28 million tons. The country’s steel exports have been surging this year and are expected to cross 100 million metric ton mark, matching levels last seen in 2016.

Exports have been a rare bright spot for the world’s second-largest economy that has been marred with lackluster domestic consumption and a prolonged housing downturn.

The year-to-date exports in U.S. dollar term rose 5.4% to $3.24 trillion, while imports increased 1.2% to $2.36 trillion from a year ago, according to the customs data released Tuesday.

The November trade data came a day after China’s top leadership pledged to ramp up monetary and fiscal policy stimulus to boost growth next year, and promised “unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments” to bolster domestic consumption demand.

Export growth could further pick up going into early 2025, as U.S. importers continue to “front load” Chinese purchases, said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank, while pointing out there could be “a fall-off in the second half” of next year, as U.S. tariffs bite.

Manufacturing activity in the country expanded for a second straight month in November, with the official purchasing managers’ index rising to 50.3, as Beijing’s existing stimulus measures helped lift certain aspects of the ailing economy.

Domestic demand though has remained soft. China’s consumer inflation fell to a five-month low in November, climbing 0.2% from a year earlier, official data on Monday showed.