Across seven meetings that have hardly ever disappointed, there has been enough proof to suggest that the uniquely-placed inter-generational rivalry between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz has been the biggest event of tennis in recent years. Their next clash may come earlier in a tournament than ever before — in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open on Tuesday — but the glint of watching men’s tennis’s greatest-ever take on its next best thing can only be diminished so much.
Djokovic, record 10-time champion at Melbourne Park, leads the head-to-head 4-3. While Alcaraz has the edge 2-1 at Majors, he is yet to beat the Serb on a hard court.
But it will be the 21-year-old Spaniard, already an owner of four Major titles seeking to become only the sixth man in the Open Era to complete the career Grand Slam in Melbourne, who comes into this match as the favourite.
Djokovic has been imperfect but steady so far, but dealing with the might of Alcaraz from the baseline, coupled with the Spaniard’s latest improvements, may prove to be an altogether different, and more daunting challenge.
Serve and return prowess
After suffering a straight-sets beatdown at the Wimbledon final last year, Djokovic had been taken aback by Alcaraz’s serving performance.
He may not be keen to find out that is the very area Alcaraz spent most of the off season improving. He has introduced a new service motion, and even added an extra 5g of lead to his racquet. Results have been there to see.
Alcaraz has been broken only thrice in four matches. He has won 81% of the points behind his first serve (the joint fourth-highest for players that made it to the second week). He is significantly outperforming his tour average numbers — on both first and second serve — throughout 2024. In his second-round demolition of Yoshito Nishioka, he hit 14 aces, his highest ever in a single match.
The Spaniard’s second most impressive area has been his return — tennis’s flashy highlight-reel shotmaker has refocused his energy on the controllables.
His 23 breaks of serve are the second-best in the men’s draw in Melbourne, and he has won 41% of the points on his opponents’ first serve, by far the best at the Australian Open this year.
Time for Murray to earn his stripes
Alcaraz’s glaring weakness though, is his tendency to allow his level to fall seemingly at random. Despite how well he has been serving, he has hit 15 double faults and only made 62% of his first serves, both being plenty of good news for an all-time great returner like Djokovic.
But for the Serb, the key area may be baseline strategy, which is where the input from his rival-turned-coach Andy Murray, may come in.
The sheer power that Alcaraz is able to produce, even from dead, neutral balls, allows him to dictate proceedings from the baseline and bring his crafty drop shots and net play into focus. It has felt even more lethal thanks to a subtle change he has made to adapt his clay-friendly game to the quicker hard courts in Melbourne.
According to tournament data pulled out by ESPN, Alcaraz is hitting his forehand slightly flatter and quicker, sacrificing 4% average topspin for about an extra 3kmph speed on that shot, a marginal tweak that’s coming up with big gains. Per ATP data, he has won 58% of his baseline points (206/358) and hit 104 winners, making him the tournament-leader in both.
Much of Djokovic’s potential success against him will depend on how he disrupts his rhythm from the baseline. It’s the choices, not possibilities, for the player with the widest arsenal in men’s tennis history. He will have to make the accurate choice in either using slices and drop shots to bring Alcaraz to the forecourt, or spraying him wide with precise, angled groundstrokes, or finishing points early at the net.
Endless speculation has raged into how Djokovic and Murray have turned rivalry into partnership at this tournament, but it is now that the three-time Major winner’s job really starts — in advising Djokovic on the minutae of dealing with Alcaraz from the back of the court.
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