The Bank of Japan (BOJ) headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged while sticking to its view that it’s on track to achieve its inflation target, an outlook that points to the possibility of another rate hike in the coming months.
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The Bank of Japan on Thursday held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.25%, opting to take the time to assess the impact of financial and foreign exchange markets on Japan’s economic activity and prices.
The yen weakened as much as 1.27% against the dollar after the rate decision, reaching a low of 156.77 on Thursday to hit its lowest level in over four months. Meanwhile, the country’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.69% for the day, ending at 38,813.
The decision to hold rates surprised economists polled by Reuters, who had expected a 25 basis points hike. Stateside, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%.
The BOJ said in its statement that the decision to hold was a split 8-1 decision, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25-basis-point hike.
The central bank did note, however, that there “remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economic activity and prices.”
“In particular, with firms’ behavior shifting more toward raising wages and prices recently, exchange rate developments are, compared to the past, more likely to affect prices,” the bank added.
The BOJ was mindful that if it waited too long to raise rates, it would have to quicken rate hikes in future meetings, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said at a press conference later on Thursday, in comments translated by Reuters.
However, as underlying inflation was only increasing at “at a moderate pace,” the BOJ could go slow in raising rates,” he said.
Separately, Ueda also said that while the U.S. economy overall remains firm, “there’s uncertainty over the policies of the incoming U.S. administration, so we need to scrutinize the impact more carefully.”
The next BOJ meeting is set to happen on Jan. 24, just after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
Tightening to resume ‘before long’
Analysts from investment bank Credit Agricole Securities Asia said the decision to leave rates unchanged was due to the BOJ’s inability to overcome opposition from the government for a third rate hike amid growing concerns that real GDP growth would be negative in 2024.
Japan’s GDP has seen a year-on-year contraction for the first two quarters of this year, only recording a 0.5% gain in the quarter ending September.
The BOJ’s decision was in line with a CNBC poll, which showed that 13 out of 24 economists expected the BOJ to keep its key interest rate unchanged in December before raising the rate at the next meeting in January.
The survey was conducted between Dec. 9-13, before the Fed signaled that there would be fewer rate cuts in 2025.
The BOJ “will resume its tightening cycle before long,” Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics said in a statement after the decision. Capital Economics expects a hike in January after a new set of economic forecasts come in.
Thieliant added “it’s worth noting that, unlike in October, the decision to leave rates on hold was not unanimous,” pointing at Tamura’s vote to raise rates to 0.5%.
Economy still resilient
Recent economic data from Japan is still currently supporting the case for a rate hike. Headline Inflation in October came in at 2.3%, the 30th straight month that inflation has crossed the BOJ’s 2% target. November’s inflation data will come in on Friday.
Business sentiment among large companies in Japan also came in higher than expected in the latest BOJ Tankan survey, with the index for large manufacturing firms climbed to 14 in the quarter ended December, up from 13 in the September quarter and beating the 12 expected from economists polled by Reuters.
The index tracks business sentiment in the country among large companies and contributes to the BOJ’s considerations when forming monetary policy. A higher figure means that optimists outnumber pessimists, and vice versa.
In a Dec. 13 note, analysts from Bank of America said that the December Tankan survey indicates Japan’s economy remains resilient.
They added that “this also confirms that the economy and inflation are trending in line with the BoJ’s base case scenario (which is its prerequisite for raising interest rates).”
However, this does not mean that the need for a rate hike is urgent. The analysts said that imported inflationary pressure is receding, while companies’ medium-term inflation expectations remain stable despite the imminent start of Trump’s administration and the risk of trade tariffs.
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