Aurora alert: Geomagnetic storm could spark northern lights in upper Midwest skies this Christmas

Heightened solar activity has spurred the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center to issue a geomagnetic storm watch for Dec. 25.

An incoming coronal mass ejection (CME) could spread aurora cheer this Christmas. Its anticipated arrival is predicted to spark minor geomagnetic storm conditions with auroras possible at high latitudes, such as northern Michigan and Maine.

The CME left the sun on Dec. 23 during a powerful M8.9 solar flare eruption and is currently on track to land Earth with a glancing blow.

When CMEs strike Earth’s magnetosphere, they bring electrically charged particles called ions that collide with our planet’s magnetic field. These collisions can spark geomagnetic storms. During these storms, ions collide with atmospheric gases, releasing energy that manifests as light. This creates the stunning displays known as the northern lights, or Aurora Borealis, in the Northern Hemisphere, and the southern lights, or Aurora Australis, in the Southern Hemisphere.

NOAA classifies geomagnetic storms using a G-scale, which ranks their intensity from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). The recent geomagnetic storm watch issued by NOAA is currently rated as a G1, indicating minor storm conditions.

When will the geomagnetic storm occur?

Current forecasts predict possible G1 conditions on Dec. 25. Check out NOAA’s 3-day forecast for the latest timings.

Space weather physicist Tamitha Skov has provided an informative space weather forecast for the days ahead in a post on X.

Keep in mind that space weather, much like Earth’s weather, is unpredictable and difficult to forecast. Even though geomagnetic storm warnings at this level are rare, they can occasionally amount to nothing.

Northern Hemisphere aurora forecast courtesy of the Met Office

If you’re interested in tracking space weather and knowing when and where to spot auroras, download a space weather app that provides forecasts based on your location. One option I use is “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts,” available for both iOS and Android. However, any similar app should work well. I also use the “Space Weather Live” app, which is available on iOS and Android, to get a deeper understanding of whether the current space weather conditions are favorable for aurora sightings.

Daisy Dobrijevic joined Space.com in February 2022 having previously worked for our sister publication All About Space magazine as a staff writer. Before joining us, Daisy completed an editorial internship with the BBC Sky at Night Magazine and worked at the National Space Centre in Leicester, U.K., where she enjoyed communicating space science to the public. In 2021, Daisy completed a PhD in plant physiology and also holds a Master’s in Environmental Science, she is currently based in Nottingham, U.K. Daisy is passionate about all things space, with a penchant for solar activity and space weather. She has a strong interest in astrotourism and loves nothing more than a good northern lights chase!