(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)
Israel first invaded Lebanon in 1978. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and several other Palestinian militant groups were then operating form Lebanon. Israel’s plan was to push the guerrillas north of the Litani River, farther from its border with Lebanon. In 1982, Israel launched its second invasion of Lebanon. This time, Israel wanted to push the PLO out of Lebanon. Prime Minister Menachem Begin promised “40 years of peace” when he launched the war. Israel managed to force the PLO to relocate from Lebanon, but the war led to the creation of Hezbollah, a Shila militant organisation. Eighteen years later, Israeli troops withdrew from southern Lebanon in the face of Hezbollah’s armed resistance. The next invasion would come in 2006, following a cross-border raid by Hezbollah. This time, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert promised to destroy Hezbollah’s military capabilities. More than 30 days later, the war ended with a ceasefire. Hezbollah survived and grew in strength in the subsequent years.
The fourth invasion came on October 1, 2024, almost a year after the Israel-Hamas war began. Hezbollah started firing rockets into Israel in October 2023, declaring “solidarity with the Palestinians”. For almost a year, Hezbollah and Israel exchanged fire, keeping the border ablaze. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to escalate it by killing Hezbollah’s top leadership and ordering a ground invasion. Hezbollah rockets had displaced some 60,000 people in northern Israel. When he launched the invasion, Mr. Netanyahu said his objective was to enable the displaced Israelis to return to their homes. He wanted to “finish the job”. In less than two months, Mr. Netanyahu accepted a ceasefire with Hezbollah, with the future of the displaced still remaining uncertain.
Why did Mr. Netanyahu and Hezbollah agree to a ceasefire? Mr. Netanyahu offered three reasons. He believes a ceasefire with Hezbollah would allow Israel to focus more on Iran, Israel’s main regional rival; two, Israel can focus on resupplying its own forces who are increasingly facing the fatigue of the two-front war (in Lebanon and Gaza) and three, Israel can isolate Hamas in the ongoing war in Gaza. While all three reasons make sense from an Israeli point of view, a larger question about Israel’s war in Lebanon is whether the IDF met its objectives. Its bombings may have weakened Hezbollah, but the militant group stands with thousands of missiles and firing capabilities. Its political standing in Lebanon remains untouched. Israeli troops also met with stiff ground resistance in southern Lebanon. For the status of the Israel-Hezbollah war, read this explainer: Making sense of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
Both Hezbollah and Israel wanted a break from fighting. But this doesn’t mean that the ceasefire could last. The fundamental reason for the current spell of Israel-Hezbollah war was the war on Gaza, which is still continuing. If violence in Gaza continues, it is likely that fighting could break out in other parts of the region. In this editorial, The Hindu argues that “the U.S., which played a constructive role in the Lebanon ceasefire, should build on the momentum and push for a ceasefire in Gaza. U.S. President Joe Biden has less than two months in office, which he should use to correct a policy that gave unconditional support for Israel’s war on Gaza and use America’s leverage over its ally to bring some relief to millions of Palestinians living under constant Israeli bombardment.”
The fall of Aleppo
It took four years for President Bashar al-Assad to recapture Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, in December 2016. It took less than four days for him to lose it in November 2024. Almost five years ago, Mr. Assad had turned around the civil war, with help from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah, and established fragile peace in his country. Most of Syria is controlled by his regime. But al-Qaeda-linked jihadists (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS) and Turkey-backed rebels (Syrian National Army) continued to control Idlib in northwest and slivers of territory on Turkish-Syrian border, while the Syrian Democratic Forces (a Kurdish militia wing backed by the U.S.) is controlling the Syrian Kurdistan in northeast. This time, the surprise attack came from Idlib, led by the HTS. The Syrian army’s defences crumbled like a sand castle.
It will take time before a clearer picture emerges. But it’s evident that the jihadists made use of the geopolitical churns in West Asia to revive the civil war in Syria. Earlier, President Assad’s forces were supported by Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. Several of Iran’s key commanders in Syria have been killed by the Israelis in recent months. Hezbollah lost thousands of its fighters in its war with Israel, and its focus is on rebuilding its capabilities in Lebanon. Russia has withdrawn thousands of its forces from Syria as its focus is on the battlefields in Ukraine. The HTS and the Turkish proxies in Idlib sensed an opportunity and launched the surprise attack against the Syrian forces, taking over Aleppo swiftly. This is a major embarrassment and a strategic setback for the regime of President Assad. A bigger challenge for Mr. Assad to prevent an outbreak of such rebel attacks elsewhere in the country, especially in the restive south.
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Published – December 02, 2024 01:11 pm IST
